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FACT
CHECK:
Did
Netanyahu
go too
far in
US
speech?
By
BRADLEY
KLAPPER
Associated
Press
WASHINGTON
-
Israeli
Prime
Minister
Benjamin
Netanyahu
overstated
Iran's
domination
of the
Middle
East and
understated
the
timespan
of the
nuclear
deal
taking
shape
with
Tehran,
while
neglecting
the role
of
Congress
in
lifting
Iranian
sanctions,
in his
speech
to U.S.
lawmakers
Tuesday.
On the
whole,
Netanyahu
largely
adhered
to what
is known
about
the
nuclear
negotiations
between
world
powers
and
Iran,
even if
he
predicted
far
direr
consequences
for the
Middle
East and
the
world if
a deal
is
reached
this
month.
His
calculations
on how
close
that
might
leave
Iran to
nuclear
weapons
capacity
rested
on solid
footing.
Still,
Netanyahu
exaggerated
at times
for
dramatic
effect.
On the
length
of an
agreement,
he
wrongly
asserted
that
restrictions
on
Iranian
nuclear
activity
would
come to
a sudden
end
after a
decade.
Some
constraints
will be
phased
out
while
others
will
remain.
And the
Obama
administration
immediately
disputed
his
account
of an
accord
paving
Iran's
"path to
the
bomb"
and
noted
how
short
his
address
was on
viable
alternatives
for
dealing
with
Iran's
program.
A look
at how
some of
Netanyahu's
arguments
adhere
to the
facts as
known,
or the
best
public
information
detailing
the
confidential
nuclear
negotiations
with
Iran:
---
NETANYAHU:
"The
first
major
concession
would
leave
Iran
with a
vast
nuclear
infrastructure,
providing
it with
a short
breakout
time to
the
bomb...
.
Because
Iran's
nuclear
program
would be
left
largely
intact,
Iran's
break-out
time
would be
very
short -
about a
year by
U.S.
assessment,
even
shorter
by
Israel's.
And if
Iran's
work on
advanced
centrifuges,
faster
and
faster
centrifuges,
is not
stopped,
that
break-out
time
could
still be
shorter,
a lot
shorter."
THE
FACTS:
"Short"
is
debatable.
The
Obama
administration
argues
that a
year is
plenty
long
enough
for
international
inspectors
and
intelligence
agencies
to pick
up on
any
effort
by Iran
to
surreptitiously
"break
out"
toward
nuclear
weapons.
Netanyahu
said his
government's
understanding
of the
agreement
means
that
window
would be
narrower.
He
didn't
specify
by how
much,
however.
On
advanced
centrifuges,
Netanyahu
noted
that
their
installation
would
cut the
timespan
even
more.
But he
didn't
mention
that a
deal is
likely
to
restrict
Iran to
its
basic
centrifuge
model,
at least
over the
first
decade.
---
NETANYAHU:
"According
to the
deal,
not a
single
nuclear
facility
would be
demolished.
Thousands
of
centrifuges
used to
enrich
uranium
would be
left
spinning.
Thousands
more
would be
temporarily
disconnected,
but not
destroyed."
THE
FACTS:
Though
vague,
Netanyahu's
assessments
on
facilities
and
centrifuges
are
reasonable.
Instead
of
dismantlement,
officials
have
spoken
of Iran
converting
its
underground
uranium
enrichment
site at
Fordo
into a
research
facility.
A
planned
heavy
water
reactor
at Arak
seems
likely
to be
redesigned
to
produce
far less
plutonium
than
first
envisioned.
Plutonium,
like
uranium,
can be
used in
nuclear
warheads.
Negotiators
say Iran
could
reduce
its
centrifuges
enriching
uranium
to 6,500
-
significantly
less
than the
9,000
that
operate
now and
the
thousands
more
sitting
offline.
---
NETANYAHU:
"True,
certain
restrictions
would be
imposed
on
Iran's
nuclear
program
and
Iran's
adherence
to those
restrictions
would be
supervised
by
international
inspectors.
But
here's
the
problem.
You see,
inspectors
document
violations;
they
don't
stop
them."
THE
FACTS:
The U.N.
nuclear
agency
has
little
enforcement
power to
eliminate
noncompliant
Iranian
activity.
But by
publicizing
infractions,
the
agency
would
put the
world on
notice.
Documented
violations
with the
United
Nations'
imprimatur
would
give the
U.S.
ample
justification
for
re-imposing
suspended
sanctions,
bringing
the
matter
to the
U.N.
Security
Council
or even
considering
military
options.
---
NETANYAHU:
"The
second
major
concession
creates
an even
greater
danger
that
Iran
could
get to
the bomb
by
keeping
the
deal,
because
virtually
all the
restrictions
on
Iran's
nuclear
program
will
automatically
expire
in about
a
decade...
Iran
would
then be
free to
build a
huge
nuclear
capacity
that
could
produce
many,
many
nuclear
bombs."
THE
FACTS:
Netanyahu
is
playing
loose
with the
timespan
for a
deal.
American
and
Western
officials
say the
full
ledger
of
restrictions
in an
agreement
would
stay in
place
for at
least a
decade,
and only
then
would
Iran's
program
be
allowed
to
gradually
expand.
The
total
life of
the
agreement
would be
at least
15
years.
Even
after
the full
agreement
expires,
all
sanctions
against
Iran
won't be
lifted
and
certainly
not
those
pertaining
to
Iranian
terrorism
links,
human
rights
violations
and
development
of
advanced
missile
technology.
Some
enrichment
restrictions
also
would
stay in
place.
These
include
the
Nuclear
Nonproliferation
Treaty's
additional
protocol,
which
Iran is
likely
to sign,
and
perhaps
even
more
stringent
constraints.
The
protocol
serves
as an
early
warning
mechanism
for
infractions.
---
NETANYAHU:
"In the
Middle
East,
Iran now
dominates
four
Arab
capitals:
Baghdad,
Damascus,
Beirut
and
Sanaa.
And if
Iran's
aggression
is left
unchecked,
more
will
surely
follow.
So at a
time
when
many
hope
that
Iran
will
join the
community
of
nations,
Iran is
busy
gobbling
up the
nations."
THE
FACTS:
Iran's
army
hasn't
invaded
any
capitals
and the
government
hasn't
annexed
territory,
even as
its
influence
across
the
Middle
East has
widened.
The
Syrian
government
is
dependent
on Iran
in its
civil
war, but
the
others,
less so.
Lebanon
isn't
totally
in the
grips of
Hezbollah.
Yemen's
Houthis,
while
Shiite,
have
assigned
limited
credit
to Iran
for
their
coup.
And
Shiite
militias
may be
"rampaging
through
Iraq,"
as
Netanyahu
says,
but
they're
doing so
alongside
the
Iraqi
army and
in
battle
against
Islamic
State
terrorists.
---
NETANYAHU:
"If
Iran's
intercontinental
ballistic
missile
program
is not
part of
the
deal,
and so
far,
Iran
refuses
to even
put it
on the
negotiating
table,
well,
Iran
could
have the
means to
deliver
that
nuclear
arsenal
to the
far-reach
corners
of the
Earth,
including
to every
part of
the
United
States."
THE
FACTS:
Just
last
month, a
senior
U.S.
negotiator
said
Iran's
ballistic
missile
program
would be
addressed
in any
agreement.
Iran has
brushed
aside
U.N.
requirements
in the
past,
however,
and
closely
guards
its
research
and
development
efforts
at
military
installations. |